Eastern Neighbourhood

Georgia’s path toward Europe is unfolding under conditions of deepening authoritarian drift. Drawing on original survey data and fieldwork, this paper examines how deficits in social and institutional trust shape democratic resilience, mediate EU democracy promotion, and condition citizens’ engagement with reform in a hybrid and geopolitically contested environment

Why does democratic reform in Moldova remain fragile despite strong support for Europe? This paper argues that a gap between social and institutional trust sustains hybrid governance and shapes how reforms and EU engagement are perceived, drawing on original survey data and analysis of EU-funded projects

This paper develops four exploratory scenarios for Eastern Europe in 2035, tracing how domestic struggles between open and closed societies intersect with intensifying great-power competition. Drawing on collaborative foresight and scenario-building, it examines how differing combinations of EU engagement, Russian and Chinese influence, and societal resilience could shape the political trajectories of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia over the coming decade

After a string of votes marred by Russian interference, Moldova is gearing up to elect its new parliament in September. As the election approaches, the Kremlin seems to be intensifying its efforts to thwart the president’s pro-European party, PAS, threatening the country’s EU accession

Together with the Ukrainians, Europeans should begin—now—to draw up a “beyond the horizon” plan for Ukraine in readiness for a ceasefire or even a peace deal

EU leaders have to learn lessons from Ukraine if they want to be truly ready to take responsibility for Europe’s security

Summary This paper examines the dynamics of hybrid regimes in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, focusing on their susceptibility to foreign interference amidst geopolitical tensions. It explores how these regimes, characterized by a mix of democratic and authoritarian practices, create fertile grounds for external actors like Russia, China, and Turkey to…

Summary: Almost three years into the war in Ukraine, the EU enlargement remains central to the EU’s efforts for resilience and stability in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood. In a fast-changing geopolitical situation, the EU’s threat perception of external actors depends on their behavior regarding the EU integration…

Summary: This study analyses the main interests and modes of engagement of the dominant EU’s actual and potential competitors and other external actors in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe. The paper specifically zooms on four such actors – Russia, China, Türkiye, and the U.S. – and outlines their long-term…

This background paper delivers a comprehensive understanding of the post- independence trajectories of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine toward the consolidation of hybridity, understood as a distinct type of regime that oscillates between democratic and authoritarian practices of power.