Georgia’s parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024 will mark a critical moment for its democracy. Over the past decade, democratic norms have eroded, with increasing authoritarianism and the introduction of the controversial “Foreign Agents’ Law.” These elections will determine whether Georgia can restore its democratic principles or slide further into authoritarianism, with significant implications for its Euro-Atlantic integration. This brief examines the possible outcomes and their impact on Georgia’s future.
Over the past decade, Georgia has witnessed a notable deterioration in its democratic principles and a departure from established democratic norms. Although, the Georgian government has retained key elements of façade democracies, such as elections, parliamentary and non-parliamentary political parties, human rights and civil society, it has significantly strengthened authoritarian aspects of its governance. This has been evident in the implementation of cohesive and repressive measures, the deterioration of civil liberties, freedom of speech, and active suppression of all forms of political contestation.
One of the most concerning developments is the government’s adoption of the “Transparency of Foreign Influence” law, commonly referred to as the “Foreign Agents’ Law” in Spring 2024. Democratic backsliding in Georgia has also been highlighted by the ruling party’s recent threats to outlaw nearly all opposition political parties if they win the upcoming 2024 parliamentary elections. These controversial moves by the Georgian government poses a significant threat to Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration process and signals a clear shift toward authoritarianism.
As Georgia approaches the October 2024 parliamentary elections, the stakes are exceedingly high. These elections are seen as a crucial turning point that will determine Georgia’s democratic future and its trajectory toward European integration. The level of democratic participation and the integrity of the electoral process will be decisive in shaping the country’s political landscape and its relationships with international partners.
In envisioning the best and worst outcomes for Georgia’s democracy, a positive shift in the political landscape could emerge if opposition parties gain substantial representation in the Parliament and form the coalition government. This scenario would not only reinstate democratic norms but also invigorate public trust in democratic institutions, promoting civic engagement and ensuring a robust political environment.
Conversely, the worst outcome would see the ruling party consolidate its power through manipulation and intimidation, pushing the country closer to a one-party state, distancing it from the West, and aligning Georgia more closely with Russia. Such a trajectory would alienate the general public and hinder Georgia’s aspirations for European integration, trapping the nation in a cycle of authoritarianism.
As Georgia navigates this critical juncture, the interplay of opportunities and challenges will be decisive. The way in which the nation responds—through active civic engagement and support from the international community—will shape its political landscape for years to come.
