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Mapping trust and preferences for geopolitical alliances: RE-ENGAGE fieldwork in hybrid regimes

News 2 min read 2025-03-27

The RE-ENGAGE project is currently conducting fieldwork in six case countries in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood to deepen the understanding of how these countries perceive and respond to hybrid threats, such as disinformation. The project’s primary aim is to assess how the EU can more effectively support resilience against these threats.

A five-step approach

The RE-ENGAGE fieldwork consists of structured surveys combined with innovative vignette experiments designed to reveal public perceptions and attitudes towards various geopolitical scenarios. Students recruited from our case countries—Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—are trained and tasked with carrying out these surveys. The training has successfully concluded in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania, and will soon be completed in Georgia before continuing in Moldova and Ukraine.

The fieldwork and case studies form part of RE-ENGAGE’s comprehensive five-step multi-method approach, which includes:

  1. Interviews in Brussels to understand the EU’s approach to supporting resilience.
  2. Foresight studies analyzing the engagement and influence of external actors.
  3. Qualitative micro-studies, examining in-depth case studies of different hybrid regimes, their characteristics, development, and functioning.
  4. Project process tracking, assessing local perceptions and effectiveness of EU-funded initiatives.
  5. A final comparative analysis to synthesize findings across countries.

Whom can you trust?

The surveys are conducted in both a primary and a secondary city in each country, using quota sampling methods to ensure representative results based on citizenship, education levels, and other demographic factors. Interviewees respond to a structured questionnaire designed to capture:

  • Trust: Interviewees rank whom they trust most—from family members, neighbours, and local institutions, to international organizations such as the EU.
  • Social support networks: Respondents indicate where they would seek support in times of personal crises, such as criminal victimization or economic hardship.
  • Local social dynamics: The survey explores the nature of community relations—whether they are harmonious or marked by political, religious, ethno-national, or social conflicts.
  • Government and EU performance: Interviewees express their satisfaction levels with governmental efforts across sectors such as economy, healthcare, democracy, and security, alongside evaluating EU support effectiveness.

Vignette experiments – an innovative approach

At the core of the survey’s uniqueness are vignette experiments. Participants engage with fictional, yet plausible scenarios designed to simulate realistic crises, after which they rank potential international responses. For example, one scenario outlines an economic crisis with different EU measures presented, including full EU membership, economic support packages, or temporary extension of the Schengen agreement. Another scenario introduces support offers from other major international actors like Russia, China, and Turkey, asking respondents to assess and rank these alternatives.

Insights from the Western Balkans

Preliminary data from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia reveals contrasts. Albanian respondents showed the most positive reception towards EU support packages, while responses in Bosnia and Herzegovina fell in the middle. Interestingly, Serbian respondents were the least enthusiastic about EU packages, exhibiting what we term “geopolitical shopping”—a strategic openness to maintaining relationships with multiple international actors simultaneously, including Turkey, Russia, China, and the EU.

The Serbian case also highlights complexities in media trustworthiness. While many citizens consume content from nationalistic media outlets like HappyTV, respondents indicated they would seek reliable information from the Serbian public broadcaster or the BBC in crisis situations.

Future prospects

This fieldwork is expected to generate valuable insights into how political regimes and local perceptions have evolved, especially regarding EU interventions in democracy promotion, rule of law, and media freedom. The data gathered will be critical not only for EU policymakers but also for fuelling informed public debates within these countries.

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