All eyes are on Moldova this Sunday. Voters will head to the polls to take part in what has been described as the most consequential election in the country’s history. At stake is whether Moldova continues its path toward EU membership, or is pulled back into Russia’s orbit.
The pressure is immense. Moldovan authorities carried out more than 250 raids this week and detained dozens of people linked to a Russian-backed plot to incite riots. At the same time, researchers uncovered a flood of AI-driven disinformation campaigns: fake news sites, spoofed Western outlets, and thousands of inauthentic TikTok accounts designed to erode trust in Moldova’s pro-European government. ECFR Senior Policy Fellow Andrew Wilson warns that “Russia is intervening on an unprecedented scale in this year’s elections. It has poured resources into often unseen manipulation online and the Moldovan authorities can only play catch-up”.
As Moldova’s president Maia Sandu warned EU lawmakers in Strasbourg on September 9th, “The Kremlin’s goal is to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union”. Wilson adds that Moscow is seeking not only to destabilise Moldova but to build a “belt of states to the west of Ukraine that will undermine global support for Ukraine”.
This external pressure highlights a wider regional challenge. As RE-ENGAGE principal investigator Pernille Rieker put it at a 2024 conference in Chisinau, “We have to rethink how the EU engages with hybrid regimes; only by addressing both formal and informal power structures can we hope to build true resilience”. Moldova’s election is therefore not just about party politics, but about how a fragile democracy, shaped by both democratic and authoritarian practices, responds to sustained pressure from Russia.
A paradox at Moldova’s core
Preliminary RE-ENGAGE findings from fieldwork in Moldova and across Eastern Europe help explain the dynamics behind this election (with full research to be released this autumn).
On one hand, Moldovans hold a strong and positive perception of the EU. Trust levels are among the highest in the region, and support for European integration remains broad. On the other hand, Moldovans’ awareness of what the EU actually does on the ground is remarkably low. In the RE-ENGAGE survey, most respondents in Moldova’s two major cities, Chisinau and Balti, said they were unaware of flagship EU-funded projects such as EU4Dialogue, and justice-reform initiatives supported by the EU and the Council of Europe.
This awareness gap matters. While many Moldovans say they appreciate the EU’s support in principle, the benefits are not always visible in daily life. As RE-ENGAGE researcher Andreas Lind Kroknes notes, Moldovans’ broadly positive view of the EU “is not truly tapped into”.
High EU support may not equal pro-EU votes
Domestic politics complicates the picture. Even if Moldova’s citizens back EU integration, frustration with Sandu’s government over inflation, energy prices and slow progress on justice reform may shape how they vote. Positivity toward Europe does not automatically translate into support for pro-EU parties.
This mirrors a broader pattern described by RE-ENGAGE researcher Morten Bøås. He says, “Several of our case countries are caught in a transition from communism to liberal democracies—a transition that has turned out to be almost permanent”. Moldova’s vulnerabilities place it firmly in this hybrid grey zone, where foreign actors exploit governance gaps and informal networks of power.
Another RE-ENGAGE study observes that “the hybrid regime in Moldova combines, on one hand, a functioning parliament, regular elections, and a relatively active civil society engagement with, on the other, vote-buying, clientelism, media manipulation, and political meddling in the legal system”. This environment deepens the divide between pro-European and pro-Russian forces, fragmenting governance and weakening social cohesion.
The lesson is clear: Europeans should not conflate Moldovans’ support for EU integration with their support for the ruling party (Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity, or PAS) which promotes this. Moldovans can trust Europe while still voicing discontent with their government—and this sometimes manifests in their turn to alternatives that lean closer to Moscow.
RE-ENGAGE researcher Kristian Lefdal notes that Moldova’s elections remain framed as a choice between deeper EU integration and normalising ties with Russia, especially in the energy domain. Yet, he stresses, many voters are in-between: around one million Moldovans hold Romanian passports and enjoy EU benefits, while the country still relies on electricity from the Russian-sponsored breakaway region of Transnistria. This duality makes the election outcome pivotal for Moldova’s energy future.
Why Moldova matters for Europe
Moldova is not just a local case. It is a frontline test of Europe’s credibility on three levels:
- Enlargement: Can Brussels use Moldova’s potential EU accession as a reform incentive and as a security strategy to secure vulnerable states against external pressure? With Moldova’s and Ukraine’s accession processes so closely linked, any setbacks in Chisinau could ripple into Kyiv.
- Democracy: Europeans need to ensure that Moldovans’ domestic frustrations are channelled into reform, rather than exploited by hybrid actors. Moldova, like Georgia before it, risks being pulled off the EU track if pro-Russian forces seize control.
- Resilience: Europeans should act to shield their neighbours from hybrid threats such as disinformation, money laundering, diaspora manipulation, and the use of “black knight” actors to destabilise fragile democracies.
Moldova’s geographical location adds to the stakes. Sandwiched between war-torn Ukraine, and EU and NATO member state Romania, Moldova is a barometer of regional democracy. A hostile government in Chisinau could complicate Ukraine’s war effort, provide Moscow with a new staging ground, and weaken Europe’s eastern frontier.
At the same time, Moldova has made notable strides in diversifying energy, strengthening civil society, and keeping EU accession on the agenda despite enormous pressure.
RE-ENGAGE researcher Andreas Lind Kroknes argues, Moldova’s vote is less about the result itself than about whether the process can withstand “widescale efforts of disinformation, influence and coercion”. If pro-Russian forces were to take control, he warns, it could stall — if not derail — Moldova’s EU integration path, repeating the Georgian scenario. That would highlight the risks of basing enlargement credibility too closely on one political actor rather than a broader cross-party consensus.
What Europe is watching
This Sunday, September 28th, Moldovans will weigh up their aspirations for Europe with their frustrations with domestic politics. The outcome will reveal much about the durability of enlargement—and about Europe’s ability to defend democracy on its borders.
A decisive factor will be the diaspora. Last year, Moldovans abroad provided Sandu with a winning margin, but this time Russia has been targeting them with online messages such as “Europe doesn’t want you”. As Wilson notes, support for Sandu’s party among the diaspora may no longer reach 90 percent.
Energy is another flashpoint. As Lefdal points out, with the Kyiv-Moscow gas transit agreement having expired in January 2025, energy prices have surged, leaving both Chisinau and Transnistria at a crossroads. Moscow’s failure to secure alternative gas routes has, paradoxically, strengthened support for the EU’s €1.9 billion rescue package. The election will help determine whether Moldova doubles down on EU-backed diversification or remains vulnerable to Russian leverage.
Finally, resilience is not just about governments. Lefdal and Kroknes stress that the EU must empower civil society organisations to play a central role in democracy promotion. Grassroots mobilisation, they argue, is essential to increase trust in the system and strengthen Moldova’s long-term resistance to hybrid threats.
From the EU’s side, “the imperative to ensure it remains a community of resilient democracies means democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc”. Moldova’s election is therefore not only a domestic turning point, but also a test of whether Europe can translate its enlargement promise into lived security and democratic resilience in its neighbourhood.
