Jan Daniel
Senior researcher, Head of the Centre for the Study of Global Regions at the Institute of International Relations Prague
Areas of Expertise
Politics and security in the Middle East (with a focus on Lebanon and Syria), Czech foreign and security policy, and societal security, particularly concerning debates on hybrid warfare, foreign malign influence and radicalization
More from Jan Daniel
Jan Daniel is a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague. He regularly comments on the topics in both Czech and international media through interviews and articles.
He is the Head of the Centre for the Study of Global Regions at the institute and coordinates its Middle East and Africa Politics Research Unit.
He obtained his PhD in International Relations at the Institute of Political Studies at the Charles University. He has been a visiting researcher at the European University Institute, Free University of Berlin or Orient-Institut Beirut. He is a member of Editorial Team of the Czech Journal of International Relations and the IIR liaison point to the Euromesco network.
Theoretically, he is mostly interested in anthropological and post-structuralist approaches to international politics and international political sociology.
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The EU and External Actors in the (Im)Possible Futures of the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe
As geopolitical competition intensifies, EU enlargement has become a strategic necessity rather than a technical process. To remain the dominant actor in its neighbourhood, the bloc must strengthen democratic resilience and reduce external dependencies
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Pathways to the East, pathways to the West: Four scenarios of Eastern Europe in 2035
This paper develops four exploratory scenarios for Eastern Europe in 2035, tracing how domestic struggles between open and closed societies intersect with intensifying great-power competition. Drawing on collaborative foresight and scenario-building, it examines how differing combinations of EU engagement, Russian and Chinese influence, and societal resilience could shape the political trajectories of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia over the coming decade
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Fractured, integrated, at war? Five Scenarios for the geopolitical futures of Western Balkans in 2035
This paper outlines five plausible geopolitical futures for the Western Balkans by 2035 amid intensifying great-power competition and a shifting European security order. Drawing on scenario-building and collaborative foresight, it examines how EU enlargement, external actors, and domestic political dynamics could interact to shape stability, fragmentation, or renewed democratic momentum
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Foresight in a state of war and geopolitical tensions: Scenario-building methodology
Summary This paper presents the conceptual background and methodological approach designed for the RE-ENGAGE foresight exercise and scenario development process. The foresight and scenarios designed focus specifically on the involvement of key external actors (Russia, China, Türkiye and the United States) in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans in…
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External actors’ engagement in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe
Summary: This study analyses the main interests and modes of engagement of the dominant EU’s actual and potential competitors and other external actors in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe. The paper specifically zooms on four such actors – Russia, China, Türkiye, and the U.S. – and outlines their…