Working paper

Georgia’s path toward Europe is unfolding under conditions of deepening authoritarian drift. Drawing on original survey data and fieldwork, this paper examines how deficits in social and institutional trust shape democratic resilience, mediate EU democracy promotion, and condition citizens’ engagement with reform in a hybrid and geopolitically contested environment

Why does democratic reform in Moldova remain fragile despite strong support for Europe? This paper argues that a gap between social and institutional trust sustains hybrid governance and shapes how reforms and EU engagement are perceived, drawing on original survey data and analysis of EU-funded projects

This paper examines how persistent trust deficits and fragile social cohesion shape EU democracy promotion in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Drawing on original survey-vignette data from Sarajevo and Tuzla and process tracing of EU-funded democracy initiatives, it shows how low institutional trust, perceptions of elite capture, and weak local ownership constrain democratic resilience despite strong public support for EU integration

This paper develops four exploratory scenarios for Eastern Europe in 2035, tracing how domestic struggles between open and closed societies intersect with intensifying great-power competition. Drawing on collaborative foresight and scenario-building, it examines how differing combinations of EU engagement, Russian and Chinese influence, and societal resilience could shape the political trajectories of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia over the coming decade

This paper examines how acute political crisis and mass civic mobilisation are reshaping trust, social cohesion, and EU democracy promotion in Serbia. Drawing on original survey-vignette data and process tracing, it shows how rising horizontal trust alongside collapsing institutional trust conditions citizens’ engagement with reform, complicates EU interventions, and exposes the limits of democracy promotion in a hybrid regime under strain

This paper outlines five plausible geopolitical futures for the Western Balkans by 2035 amid intensifying great-power competition and a shifting European security order. Drawing on scenario-building and collaborative foresight, it examines how EU enlargement, external actors, and domestic political dynamics could interact to shape stability, fragmentation, or renewed democratic momentum

How does EU democracy promotion operate in a country that is firmly pro-European yet persistently hybrid? Drawing on original survey data and process-tracing of EU-funded justice and media reforms, this paper argues that selective trust and informal power mediate Europeanisation in Albania, shaping how citizens experience reform, allocate credibility, and engage with EU-linked institutions

This paper explores the relationship between theory and method and serves as a basis for further studies in the project's focus areas the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood.

This paper conducts the initial conceptualisation of the key analytical concepts of democracy, trust, hybrid regimes, and resilience.