EU

The EU's enlargement policy remains a powerful tool—but in hybrid regimes, legal reforms alone are no longer enough. Without rebuilding trust and tackling informal power structures, enlargement risks reinforcing the very systems it seeks to transform.

This paper examines how persistent trust deficits and fragile social cohesion shape EU democracy promotion in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Drawing on original survey-vignette data from Sarajevo and Tuzla and process tracing of EU-funded democracy initiatives, it shows how low institutional trust, perceptions of elite capture, and weak local ownership constrain democratic resilience despite strong public support for EU integration

This paper develops four exploratory scenarios for Eastern Europe in 2035, tracing how domestic struggles between open and closed societies intersect with intensifying great-power competition. Drawing on collaborative foresight and scenario-building, it examines how differing combinations of EU engagement, Russian and Chinese influence, and societal resilience could shape the political trajectories of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia over the coming decade

This paper examines how acute political crisis and mass civic mobilisation are reshaping trust, social cohesion, and EU democracy promotion in Serbia. Drawing on original survey-vignette data and process tracing, it shows how rising horizontal trust alongside collapsing institutional trust conditions citizens’ engagement with reform, complicates EU interventions, and exposes the limits of democracy promotion in a hybrid regime under strain

How does EU democracy promotion operate in a country that is firmly pro-European yet persistently hybrid? Drawing on original survey data and process-tracing of EU-funded justice and media reforms, this paper argues that selective trust and informal power mediate Europeanisation in Albania, shaping how citizens experience reform, allocate credibility, and engage with EU-linked institutions