Western Balkans

As geopolitical competition intensifies, EU enlargement has become a strategic necessity rather than a technical process. To remain the dominant actor in its neighbourhood, the bloc must strengthen democratic resilience and reduce external dependencies

The EU's enlargement policy remains a powerful tool—but in hybrid regimes, legal reforms alone are no longer enough. Without rebuilding trust and tackling informal power structures, enlargement risks reinforcing the very systems it seeks to transform.

The EU is still seen as the Western Balkans’ anchor for stability and modernisation. But where reforms remain invisible and institutions remain captured, European support risks strengthening expectations without delivering democratic trust.

The Democracy School Framework for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia provides a comprehensive roadmap for strengthening democratic governance beyond formal institutional reform. Combining practical training with country-specific analysis, it equips political, civic and public-sector actors with the tools to tackle corruption, improve accountability, counter disinformation, foster inclusive participation and advance democratic resilience in support of long-term European integration.

This paper outlines five plausible geopolitical futures for the Western Balkans by 2035 amid intensifying great-power competition and a shifting European security order. Drawing on scenario-building and collaborative foresight, it examines how EU enlargement, external actors, and domestic political dynamics could interact to shape stability, fragmentation, or renewed democratic momentum